Published on March 29, 2026
Ali Vaez, an esteemed Iran expert at the International Crisis Group, has expressed grave concerns regarding the current state of U.S.-Iran relations, especially following the policies of former President Donald Trump. He argues that Trump has initiated a conflict that is not only challenging to navigate but one that he may ultimately be unable to conclude.
In an interview, Vaez pointed out that the narrative of an American victory in the Middle East is precarious at best. He emphasized that while the U.S. government once believed it could exert significant influence over Iran, the landscape has shifted dramatically. The Iranian regime, he noted, has become increasingly radicalized in response to external pressures and sanctions.
Vaez attributes this radicalization partly to the perceived threat from the U.S., which has emboldened hardliners within Iran. He argues that the Iranian leadership, feeling cornered, is unlikely to seek diplomatic resolutions under these circumstances. “The more isolated they feel, the more they will double down on their aggressive policies,” he warns.
Moreover, Vaez believes that the rhetoric surrounding U.S. military might doesn’t resonate with the current geopolitical realities in the region. He suggests that the U.S. victory narrative is built on an outdated framework that overlooks the complexities of Iranian society and politics. “It is a fragile story that could collapse under the weight of reality,” he insists.
As tensions continue to simmer, Vaez urges for a more nuanced understanding of Iran’s motivations. He advocates for dialogue rather than confrontation, arguing that sustainable peace in the region requires genuine engagement with Iranian leadership. “Without understanding the local dynamics, any efforts to enforce change will likely backfire,” he adds.
Looking ahead, Vaez emphasizes the importance of international cooperation to stabilize the region. He believes that a multilateral approach, involving not just the U.S. but also European allies and regional powers, is essential to breaking the cycle of hostility. In his view, the stakes are high, and without concerted efforts, the potential for broader conflict looms ominously.
The ramifications of Trump’s actions in the Middle East are still unfolding, and according to Vaez, the lessons learned from this period will shape U.S. foreign policy for years to come. As the situation evolves, he maintains that understanding and addressing the underlying issues is vital for a resolution that benefits not only Iran but the entire region.
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