Published on April 7, 2026
The art market is in a period of transition. 2024 was a difficult year for auction houses, followed by a slow but sure recovery in 2025. Collectors with works to sell have gradually begun to readjust their expectations, but the auction houses are under pressure to deliver results. As a consequence, all buyers at auction need to think smartly about the value of the works being sold and carefully review sources such as estimates quoted .
Auction estimates reflect sellers, not the market. An auction estimate is a negotiated price range—part market signal, part sales strategy—intended to guide bidding. It is usually set as a low-to-high range. In practice, estimates anchor expectations in the room, influence where bidding begins, and can create momentum or confidence. However, they should never be mistaken for an objective or fixed measure of an artwork’s true worth.
Throughout my career as an auctioneer, I have maintained that conservative estimates generate the highest levels of competition and prices. A prime example of this was Sotheby’s sensible approach to estimates for the hugely successful Pauline Karpidas sale in London last September, which was 100 percent sold and garnered $136 million against a pre-sale estimate of $80 million. This sale showcased how wise estimating can kick-start confidence in the global art market.
Collectors need to be particularly cautious about works reappearing less than five years after their purchase, as this could indicate that the buyer is looking to recoup their costs in a market that may have declined as 20 percent in recent years. Additionally, buyers’ premiums—an extra percentage fee paid on the auction lot—can increase estimated prices.
The simple answer is to conduct thorough research before bidding. Seek expert advice and look for market information from transparent data sources.
Be wary of how competition creates optimism. Over the past decade, the competition among leading auction houses for major consignments has intensified. This has resulted in increased estimates at the top of the market, particularly for rare objects from significant collections. While some prices have corrected 20 percent, others remain inflated, particularly for established early 20th-century artists and those whose works saw price surges between 2020 and 2023.
Each sale leads to readjustments in the market, but it takes time for owners to align their expectations with the current pricing levels. Prospective buyers should be patient, monitor market trends, and most importantly, trust their judgment.
Understanding the impact of auction guarantees on estimates is crucial. Guarantees—minimum prices promised to sellers —have become more prevalent as competition has increased and sellers have lost confidence in pricing. This generally supports strong estimates for top lots in high-profile evening sales. Day sales, designed to encourage competition and higher sell-through rates, often present greater opportunities for bidders.
A patient buyer can often locate a bargain, especially in estate sales where, after the headline works perform well, the remaining lots can be overlooked and undervalued. For instance, during the recent Roger and Josette Vanthournout collection auction at Christie’s London, an auctioneer could start bidding on these lesser lots at much more reasonable levels after a successful evening sale.
Today’s art buyers have unprecedented access to data. In the past, collectors relied on unillustrated price guides. Now, visuals, auction records, and comparative descriptions are readily available online. However, more information does not always equate to improved judgment. Outlier prices—especially from major collections—can distort perceptions of value. Phenomenal sales often attract significant prices for individual works, influenced of storied collectors.
Therefore, buyers should be cautious when correlating their expectations with top prices paid for reputed artists, as these are often outliers in the broader market. Priceless provenance can significantly elevate value, but this is temporary.
Some key tips on bidding at auction include starting early. As an auctioneer, I often encourage initial bids to come in below the low estimate, even if the reserve is higher. This allows strong bidders to engage early with the auctioneer and can help dictate the pace of the auction. It’s advantageous to bid first rather than waiting; playing a waiting game often backfires. Demonstrating strength early on can create a psychological edge.
Trust your number, not the estimate. Auctioning is competitive, and only one bidder will win. Follow your plan and be ready to place an additional bid to outmaneuver the competition. I have frequently secured objects for less than expected because my client’s maximum price was not reached. Be assured that if someone else is bidding above the estimate, their presence validates your decision to increase your bid.
Control the pace of bidding. As a bidder, you are not obligated to comply with the auctioneer’s increments. Large increments can dissuade competitors from continuing. In the case of Leonardo da Vinci’s *Salvator Mundi*, the bidding increments were strategically designed to create unpredictability as several bidders tried to overtake each other.
An auction is exhilarating. Do your research, understand your chosen field, and do not hesitate to seek out advice. Attend the sale in person, plan your strategy, and enjoy every moment.
Related News
- Artemis crew the first humans to lay eyes on 965km-wide crater hidden towards far side of the moon
- Media platforms must function with shared standards, values: UP CM
- Fostering diverse communities in Central Willamette Valley
- Iran-Israel war Highlights: Iran army dismisses Trump's 'rude, arrogant rhetoric'
- Greek ministers resign over EU farming subsidy scandal
- How the Olympic Ban on Transgender Women Could Affect All Women Athletes