The shocking rise of mortgage costs since Iran war – and when they might go down again

Published on March 27, 2026

The recent outbreak of war in Iran has triggered a seismic shift in mortgage costs, leaving many potential homeowners scrambling for stability. In the wake of escalating geopolitical tensions, the residential mortgage market has experienced a dramatic transformation, with the once common four percent mortgage deals vanishing entirely.

Homebuyers and investors are facing rising interest rates as lenders react to the uncertainties in the global economy. The war’s impact on oil prices, supply chains, and inflation has led to increasing costs of borrowing. Lenders, wary of the volatile landscape, have been quick to adjust their offerings, often resulting in rates that are significantly higher than just a few months ago.

Since the conflict began, mortgage rates have surged, with many institutions now offering rates hovering around five percent or higher. This steep increase has not only priced out many first-time buyers but has also led to a stagnation in the housing market. As affordability declines, economists predict potential slowdowns in home sales and an eventual cooling of housing price growth.

As for when rates might stabilize or even decrease, experts express cautious optimism. Some analysts believe that if the geopolitical situation stabilizes and inflation begins to wane, we could see a gradual easing of mortgage costs. However, this is contingent on numerous factors, including the resolution of the conflict, economic signals from major economies, and actions taken .

Potential buyers are urged to evaluate their options carefully and consider locking in rates before further increases occur. Amidst these turbulent times, the housing market remains a pivotal sector to watch, with its fate closely tied to international developments and domestic economic policies.

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